Projections from researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health indicate that the United States may need to maintain stay-at-home orders, stadium and event center closures, and school closures until 2022 if a Coronavirus vaccine is not readily available.

Contrary to the White House’s projections of a Coronavirus end by summer, the study published in the journal Science on Tuesday offers a different outlook.

The Harvard School of Public Health team created possible scenarios of the current pandemic by using information about Covid-19 and other Coronaviruses.

The report from the Harvard School of Public Health stated, “Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.” The research also suggests that SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained even if apparent elimination occurs, as a resurgence in contagion could be possible until 2024.

The study indicates the likelihood of the virus returning quickly once restrictions are lifted, and the existence of immunity to the new Coronavirus following infection is yet to be confirmed.

“If intermittent distancing is the chosen approach, it may be necessary to implement it for several years, which is obviously a very long time,” stated Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author on the study and an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, during a discussion with reporters.

”Social distancing is one of the most powerful weapons against COVID-19,” said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “If we can just maximize that social distancing, we can limit this virus’s ability.”

A CNN report highlighted potential challenges concerning finding reliable tests for coronavirus antibodies, determining the level and duration of immunity from previous infection, and the capacity of health systems to conduct widespread antibody tests in the general population.

Issues around immunity certificates were also brought up, addressing concerns of creating a two-tier society where individuals with such certificates can return to a more normal life while others remain in lockdown.

The study researchers are cognizant of the negative economic, social, and educational consequences of prolonged distancing, even if intermittent. They anticipate that their research will help identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches and stimulate further discussions on ways to control the pandemic.