It is one week since the Iran war. A week marked by the threats of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, after the ‘no to war’ proclaimed by the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, and after the refusal to let the United States use the military bases. The American leader, in response to this, has described Sánchez as a “terrible leader” and has assured that he will cut off “all trade with Spain.”
However, at the moment there has been no movement. In it world order, Blas Moreno and Alba Leiva have explained what this means and what consequences it may have. “Spain can refuse to prevent them from using the bases because they are in Spanish sovereign territory,” Alba indicated. Trump, even so, has insisted that the bases are “his” and that he is going to send soldiers to them to use them, something that “can be done by proxy, but it would mean a diplomatic conflict,” according to the journalist.
The trade embargo cannot be carried out, but it can paralyze imports and exports
Regarding the trade blockade with which the US president has threatened Spain, Albaha assured that “it cannot be imposed”, since our country is protected within the European Common Market. They are measures that have to be negotiated “at the European level”, he explained, because Spain is protected by the shield of the European Union.
Although Trump can “paralyze imports and exports” of some products, such as olive oil, of which the United States is the main export destination. It can also block US gas exports to Spain, something “serious” according to Alba, because we import 44% of our gas from the US.
Furthermore, he recalled that the existing tensions with Algeria, which is also another of the main gas suppliers to Spain, means that Spain has “greater energy vulnerability”, so “it is good to be firm against Trump, but it can have consequences.”
Spain is less and less alone in that ‘no to war’
For his part, Blas has commented that although at first Spain was very alone in that ‘no to war’, other countries have been joining in little by little, such as France, Italy, Poland, whose government is “quite close” to Trump. Noteworthy is the case of Germany, whose chancellor was in the White House at the time of the announcement of the trade embargo and did not say anything, but upon returning to Europe he did speak out.
According to the journalist The world order What was not understood was that Spain did not participate in the collective defense of the allies. Something that has changed with the sending of the frigate Christopher Columbus to Cyprus. “We are not totally disengaged, we only participate to defend a European country that has received an attack and has no reason to,” he specified.
The war is not going to end soon
Regarding a supposed surrender of Iran, as Trump predicted, Alba has not been convinced, because “we are seeing that the fighting continues”, which could mean an escalation of the war. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard continues to attack and respond to attacks, so the bombings will not stop, not even by the Gulf countries.
In this sense, both journalists believe that the United States has not thought about what they are going to do after destroying Iran and that it is simply a matter of “generating chaos for the sake of generating chaos.” In addition, it was known the consequences it would cause, such as the rise in oil and gas prices and that the conflict was going to be prolonged.
The role of the Ukrainian war
This war has also brought to light another surprising fact: Trump has asked the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, for help to stop the Iranian drones, since the US uses very expensive missiles to shoot down cheap drones, while Ukraine has developed cheap and effective methods, because it has been defending itself against Russia for years.
However, Zelesnki has warned that his help would only be possible if it did not harm Ukraine’s defense and if it received support to defend itself from Russia. So this Iran war could have contradictory effects for Russia: on the one hand, it loses an ally like Iran, but on the other, it could benefit from the increase in the price of oil and Europe and the United States are distracted from the war in Ukraine.
