According to a new report, the Coronavirus pandemic is expected to persist until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected, possibly lasting until 2022. The virus’s ability to spread from asymptomatic individuals makes it particularly challenging to control, and the United States, with a high number of cases and deaths, should prepare for the possibility of a second significant wave of infections in the fall and winter. Even in the best-case scenario, fatalities from the virus are anticipated to continue.
The report was compiled by a team of long-standing pandemic experts including Mike Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, and Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. They cautioned that the pandemic’s duration is likely to be 18 to 24 months as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population, given that Covid-19 is a novel disease with no existing immunity.
The experts also highlighted that Covid-19’s transmission pattern and characteristics make it more comparable to a pandemic strain of influenza. They emphasized the need for government officials to prepare citizens for a prolonged battle against the virus, advising that three scenarios are possible, with scenario 2 – a larger wave in the fall or winter followed by smaller waves in 2021 – being the worst-case scenario that states and territories should prepare for.
Despite the potential influence of a vaccine, the report posited that a vaccine is unlikely to be available until at least 2021. The experts expressed surprise at the decisions made by many states to lift restrictions aimed at controlling the virus’s spread.
Globally, as of 11:23 am Friday, May 1, 2020, there were 3,322,661 cases of Coronavirus with 234,408 deaths and 1,050,408 recoveries.