The outlook for the Nigerian economy in 2024, as predicted by Cordros Capital Limited, suggests a rise in inflation and a volatile equity market.
The firm’s Economic Outlook for 2024 noted the positive growth path of the Nigerian economy in the 2023 financial year, but also highlighted challenges such as the cash crunch caused by the naira redesign policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria, electioneering activities, petrol subsidy removal, and lingering currency pressures from foreign exchange liberalisation, which affected economic activities.
Cordros projected that real Gross Domestic Product growth in 2024 would surpass that of the previous year, with the oil sector’s growth expected to accelerate alongside a recovery in crude oil production, and the non-oil sector anticipated to see slight growth, particularly in the services sector. The firm forecasted a 3.32 per cent year-on-year GDP growth for the 2024 financial year, with the oil sector growing by 12.55 per cent year-on-year and the non-oil sector by 2.79 per cent year-on-year.
In terms of inflation, Cordros presented three scenarios – base, bull, and bear cases. For the base case, it projected that PMS prices might rise to NGN657.00/litre, the currency could trade between NGN800.00/USD to NGN850.00/USD at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market window, and there could be a 20.0 per cent increase in electricity tariff, resulting in a full-year average of 24.65 per cent year-on-year for the 2024 financial year.