In the last few hours, two things have happened in the Iran war that Trump did not see coming. And his inability to anticipate the consequences of his actions are especially disturbing, considering what his actions are.
The first sign that things are not going the way the US president wanted is that the Iranians have elected Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son as the new supreme leader of Iran. It’s exactly what Trump didn’t want to happen, he was very specific. It would be unacceptable, he said. And surely the ayatollahs have chosen him precisely for that reason. Because of his experience as a leader, certainly not. Because the son of the late supreme leader doesn’t have much. It is a challenge to Trump and a sign that the war could escalate.
The other sign that the second week of war has already had its consequences out of hand is the stock market debacle and the rise in the price of oil. And, therefore, everything else that depends on it. From the price of transportation, to tomatoes (which also need gasoline to get to the supermarket), and even mortgages. Everything is going to go up.
A barrel of oil now exceeds 100 dollars and anticipates an energy crisis of a still incalculable dimension. Although, I also tell you, the lords of this war could have already calculated better that destabilizing Iran could destabilize the world economy, which depends so much on oil, which depends so much on the Strait of Hormuz, which depends so much on Iran.
The United States tried yesterday to calm the markets by pledging not to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. But Israel has done it. And Iran has counterattacked the Gulf by going after the neighboring petrostates: Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Chaos in the world economy is the Iranian objective. And the Revolutionary Guard does not hide it. Yesterday an Iranian spokesman made the challenge clear: “If you can tolerate an oil price above $200 per barrel, continue with this game.”
Moral?
It’s not a game, it’s war.
So unpredictable that it’s terrifying
